Economic analyses

Figures that withstand questioning by the opposing party

We perform economic and financial analyses for disputes, proceedings and business decisions. The twelve areas below show the range of topics handled within the Metasy, IAEG and KDE group and in court-appointed expert work. No client names; each topic represents cases we have actually handled.

Areas of analysis

Areas, not slogans. Behind every topic stands completed work and a tested method.

Valuation of businesses and shares

We value companies, shares in limited-liability and joint-stock companies and organised parts of an enterprise (business units) for disputes, enforcement, transactions and inheritance. A zero value for a company with negative equity is also a finding that has to be documented.

  • Shareholder disputes, compulsory buy-out, squeeze-out
  • Division of marital property, forced share and inheritance
  • Contribution in kind - verification of contribution value
  • Pre-packaged sale (pre-pack) and inventory of the estate
  • Enforcement against shares - appraisal of attached shares for court enforcement officers
  • Minority stakes and companies with negative equity
  • Corporate groups (look-through, a dozen or more companies)
  • Organised parts of an enterprise, trade marks, copyrights, rolling stock and movable property
  • Private healthcare providers (NZOZ), non-public schools, service businesses

Lost profits and commercial damages

We quantify damages and lost profits: but-for scenario, incremental margin, discounting. The model must show what would have happened had the breach not occurred, and defend every assumption.

  • Breach of contract
  • Contractual penalties and non-compete clauses
  • Lost income of an individual (e.g. while a vehicle is under repair)
  • Compensatory annuity (loss of earnings)
  • Damages in failed M&A transactions
  • IT projects and business interruption
  • But-for scenario, incremental margin, discounting

Insolvency and directors' liability

We establish the date of insolvency and check whether creditors would have recovered more had the petition been filed on time. We work for creditors, board members, insolvency trustees and courts.

  • Date of insolvency (onset)
  • Article 299 of the Polish Commercial Companies Code (KSH - personal liability of directors for company debts)
  • Article 21 of the Polish Bankruptcy Law (duty to file for bankruptcy)
  • Creditor recovery test
  • Fraudulent-transfer claim (actio Pauliana) - equivalence of consideration
  • Assessment of the grounds for a bankruptcy petition
  • Capacity to satisfy creditors from the company's assets
  • Recovery programmes

Loans and financial products

We prepare settlement calculations for foreign-currency-indexed and -denominated loans, verify whether the WIBOR rate (Polish interbank reference rate) was market-based and check the correctness of the APRC (annual percentage rate of charge). We compute the variants a court may adopt and show the differences between them.

  • CHF loans - settlement calculations and variants with the CHF indexation removed
  • WIBOR-based loans - market conformity of the rate, BMR
  • APRC and the 'free credit' sanction (statutory penalty for defective consumer-credit disclosure)
  • Verification of loan calculators
  • Credit union (SKOK) loans
  • Unit-linked insurance funds and structured bonds
  • Endowment policies and sum insured
  • Mis-selling

Economic crime cases

For public prosecutors and police we establish the quantum of loss, reconstruct cash flows and assess the reliability of accounting books. The opinion must be clear to the authority and robust against the defence's objections.

  • Quantum of loss (Article 296 of the Polish Criminal Code)
  • Misappropriation of shares
  • Valuation of receivables portfolios pledged as bond collateral
  • Cash-flow analysis
  • VAT fraud mechanisms ('VAT loans')
  • Investment fraud
  • Financial condition of a bank or financial institution
  • Reliability of accounting books

Digital assets

We value cryptocurrencies, tokens and NFTs as at the date of the offence and trace on-chain flows. We prepare securing procedures for authorities and deliver training.

  • Valuation of cryptocurrencies, tokens and NFTs as at the date of the offence
  • On-chain tracing: BTC, exchanges, crypto ATMs
  • Appraisal of attached crypto-assets
  • Securing procedures for authorities
  • Training for tax administration chambers

Real estate and service charges

We check the correctness of service charges and settlements in housing cooperatives and social housing associations (TBS) and calculate the value of lost property. We analyse the running costs of large facilities.

  • Correctness of service charges in housing cooperatives
  • Settlements in social housing associations (TBS)
  • Rent arrears
  • Value of lost property (administrative cases)
  • Running costs of sports and leisure facilities (e.g. water parks)

Capital markets

We value shares of listed companies, including on NewConnect, and examine share transactions. Event studies show the impact of an event on the share price.

  • Valuation of listed shares (Warsaw Stock Exchange, NewConnect)
  • Share transactions
  • Event studies
  • Share tokenisation
  • Innovation and the market value of companies

Energy and renewables

We calculate the profitability of PV installations, combined heat and power (CHP) and biomass. We analyse energy and certificate prices in damages models and business plans.

  • Profitability of PV installations
  • Combined heat and power (CHP)
  • Biomass
  • Energy prices
  • Certificates and support schemes

Public sector, grants, R&D

We audit the implementation of R&D projects on behalf of funding institutions, assess SME status and value own contributions. We conduct evaluations, surveys and financial analyses of public entities.

  • Audits of R&D project implementation (exercise of control, financial settlement)
  • SME status and capital and personal links
  • Valuation of own contribution to R&D projects
  • Programme evaluations
  • Statistical analyses: surveys, questionnaire research
  • Financial analyses of hospitals and municipal entities
  • Business plans for loans and grants

Corporate finance

We prepare merger and transformation plans, business plans, strategies and due diligence. We help raise finance: EU grants, R&D, renewables, loans.

  • Company merger and transformation plans
  • Business plans and strategies
  • Due diligence
  • Financing: EU grants, R&D, renewables, loans
  • Advisory for start-ups

Employment and social insurance

We calculate remuneration and compensatory annuities and verify initial pension capital and pension recalculations. Every calculation is referenced to payroll documents and legal provisions.

  • Remuneration in employment disputes
  • Compensatory annuities
  • Initial pension capital (Polish social insurance)
  • Pension recalculations
  • Lost income of an individual

Methodology

The same method in every case. The material differs, not the standard.

Source data

Accounting books, JPK (standard audit files for tax, SAF-T), KSeF (Poland's national e-invoicing system), RDF/KRS (repository of financial statements / Polish National Court Register), on-chain data, case files. We do not work on summaries or on the parties' declarations.

Full audit trail

Every assumption has a stated source, down to the page number of the case file. Every calculation can be repeated and checked to the last penny.

Sensitivity analysis

We show how the result changes when key assumptions change. The court and the parties see which parameters drive the amount.

Standards and literature

KSWS (Polish national valuation standards), SBWPwP and IVS valuation standards; litigation services and damages quantification literature. The method is described and justified, not chosen ad hoc.

Adversarial review

Before delivery a second person looks for weak points the way the opposing party will. We fix them before sending, not after objections.

Findings, not expectations

If the data lead to a zero result or one unfavourable to the client, we document that result. The credibility of our methodology is worth more than any single case.

Who the analyses are for

Courts

Expert opinions in civil and commercial cases: valuations, lost profits, insolvency, loans, charges. In court-appointed expert work and through IAEG.

Public prosecutors and police

Quantum of loss, cash flows, VAT fraud, investment fraud, digital assets. Opinions that are clear to the authority and robust against the defence's objections.

Court enforcement officers

Appraisal of attached shares and crypto-assets, preliminary register analytics before commissioning a full valuation.

Insolvency trustees and restructuring advisers

Valuations in pre-packaged sales and inventories of the estate, creditor recovery test, fraudulent-transfer claims, assessment of the grounds for a bankruptcy petition.

Tax administration chambers

Opinions as an expert appointed by the tax administration: valuations, reliability of accounting books, digital assets. Training in securing crypto-assets.

Law firms

Analyses for claims and defence, rebuttal reports, objections to court experts' reports, evidentiary questions. Details on the Litigation page.

Businesses and management boards

Valuations, merger plans, business plans, defence material in Article 299 KSH cases, calculation of damages in disputes with counterparties.

Funds, investors, public institutions

Due diligence of claims and companies, programme evaluations, R&D audits, statistical and financial analyses of public entities.

Need an analysis in one of these areas?

Describe the case and the material you have. We give a preliminary feasibility assessment within 48 hours, then one fee and one deadline.